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"I will be positioned in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, joking that if our conversation proceeded smoothly, he might invite us into Downing Street for another conversation in 2026.

For a PM, there's never any break for prime ministers. Just an hour before we sat down, the PM had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to decipher what on earth had occurred in Venezuela, where his key political chum, US President Donald Trump, had just launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When the discussion, which was far more extended than typical, had concluded, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

But as the year commences, the Prime Minister appears to have had something of a refresh. Maybe even just some downtime with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly appeared to have left him in improved morale than at the sluggish conclusion of 2025, a dreadful annus horribilis for him.

But are he and his allies kidding themselves if they reckon his standing are about to get better?

Leadership Questions

The uncomfortable truth for the PM is that many of his party members are convinced he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would sooner gamble and oust him this year.

However Starmer was having none of it during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he told me he'd be "evaluated at the general election", maintaining nobody would strip his electoral mandate from him – even if the best chance of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 might be for Labour to switch leader.

"This is the battle of our times and I aim to lead us," he affirmed.

The Spring Test

The problem for the prime minister is that he will be judged far sooner than then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He attempted to contend, perhaps too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

True – up to a point. But although he may be reluctant to admit it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir stating that there were no situation under which he would resign, even if a his MPs ran against him for the job, if those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He tried to explain his unpopularity by saying the voters was understandably impatient for things to get better. He aimed to assure the interviewer, and the nation, that this year would be different.

The economic situation would recover despite rising unemployment, he argued, when strategies the government implemented during their first turbulent year began to bear fruit.

• He vowed to empty asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he wouldn't set a firm date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it wasn't a certainty, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt closer now than at any time since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He disclosed for the first occasion that Western allies were now talking about how to coordinate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to safeguard a possible peace.

His central point is that soon the country will "see an improvement".

Familiar Arguments

The prime minister may have spoken with more energy than I've seen from him for a some time – less tense, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of facing pressure from many directions for a more decisive approach, with increased political vision, more dynamism, more speed and more urgency, his points were familiar ones.

When he finds himself in such significant political peril, does he need a change of tack?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, gets everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's problems are not only because government is difficult, but because he and his team have made mistakes, even in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an controversy when statements he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Starmer attributed it to "the system" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is facing obvious political perils as the year gets going. His friendship with the US president takes on a new complication after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over a long period, the thought he would be comfortable with these events seems implausible.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He asserted he was a "longtime champion of international law" but the public "simply haven't got the entire story at the moment".

Critics wanted him to condemn it prior to the interview. And the administration is likely to face increased demands to give an definitive view in Parliament in the coming days.

There has also long been growing tension in the Labour ranks to revisit some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir disputes he's pursuing that, but his new firmer pledge to integrate further with the single market – the vast economic European market – will likely trigger accusations that he is breaking his vow never to try to reverse the choices that stemmed from Brexit.

A move to cosy up to more of the single market will please many on his side of the party, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to